Red Sea route restoration and capacity adjustment

        On February 3, 2026, Maersk and Hapag Lloyd announced within the framework of the "Gemini Alliance" that their ME11/IMX route would resume Red Sea Suez Canal traffic from mid February, marking the industry's first phase of resuming operations. The route connects India, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean. The westward maiden ship "Albert Maersk" departed from Mondra, India on February 4th, and the eastward maiden ship "Astrid Maersk" departed from Valencia, Spain on February 3rd. All voyages were escorted by the navy to ensure safe navigation. Previously, Maersk's MECL route completed a Red Sea trial in January and structurally returned to the Suez Canal. By reducing the deployment of ships from 14 to 12, operational efficiency was improved and the voyage was shortened by about 14 days. The gradual restoration of the Red Sea route has shortened single voyage times by 7-19 days compared to circumnavigating the Cape of Good Hope, releasing a large amount of hidden capacity previously locked in due to circumnavigation and easing the pressure on ship turnover. However, despite the resumption of some routes, the situation in the Red Sea still supports the freight rates of Asia Europe routes, and most shipping companies remain cautious, with some routes continuing to detour around the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk also warns that with the full recovery of the Red Sea route, the concentrated release of a large amount of hidden capacity may lead to market overcapacity, which in turn may cause fluctuations in freight rates. The industry expects the overcapacity rate to rebound to 14% -15% by 2026. For the supply chain, companies need to closely monitor the dynamics of the ME11/IMX maiden voyage and subsequent route recovery, reserve a 7-10 day shipping schedule buffer, and develop a plan for switching between the Red Sea and Cape of Good Hope dual routes to cope with potential safety risks and fare fluctuations.