EU ETS drives up shipping surcharges

        Starting from January 1, 2026, the EU ETS will comprehensively tighten the maritime sector, not only achieving emission coverage, but also including non CO ₂ greenhouse gases in the regulatory scope. Coupled with the increase in carbon quota (EUA) prices, mainstream shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag Lloyd have transferred compliance costs to shippers in the form of surcharges, with an average increase of 40% -50%, directly pushing up the overall freight rates of European routes. The following is an explanation from four aspects: core driving factors, adjustment of shipping company surcharges, impact on the supply chain, and suggestions for shippers to respond:

1、 Core driving factors: Upgrading of new regulations in 2026 and dual market pressure

        Firstly, the proportion of emissions coverage has significantly increased. By 2024, only 40% of emissions will be covered by EU air routes, and by 2025, it will increase to 70%, with full coverage achieved directly by 2026; And 50% of the emissions from transoceanic routes entering and leaving the EU are also included in the regulatory scope, which directly leads to a doubling of compliance costs, with an average annual increase of about 1.3 million euros in compliance costs for a single bulk carrier. Next is the expansion of emission regulation categories, with new regulatory requirements for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), expanding the emission accounting base. The additional cost of LNG ships and other types of vessels can reach $95-169 per ton. Furthermore, carbon prices continue to rise, with EUA prices at around 88 euros/ton at the beginning of 2026, significantly higher than previous years, directly driving an increase of 70-110 euros per TEU surcharge, and a 40 foot container surcharge of up to 168 US dollars. Due to the tightening of the performance period, the emissions generated in 2026 need to be fully paid for in September 2027, without any buffer space. Shipping companies choose to raise prices in advance to offset the pressure of centralized payment and transfer risks.

2、 Adjustment of Shipping Company Surcharge (as of January 13, 2026)

        In terms of mainstream price increases and charging standards, Hapag Lloyd's surcharge has increased by an average of 45%, adopting a differentiated charging model based on routes, and dynamically updating the charging standards based on carbon prices every quarter; Maersk's 40 foot dry container surcharge for the Far East Nordic route has increased to $168, an increase of $54 from before, and the 40 foot dry container surcharge for the Nordic Far East route has increased to $113, an increase of $36; Other mainstream shipping companies such as Dafei, ONE, HMM, etc. have also followed suit and increased their fees, with most of the newly added fees listed as "climate surcharges" or "emission surcharges (ESS)". In terms of billing rules, there is a clear differentiation between routes and container types, with EU routes having additional costs due to emission coverage, and transoceanic routes having costs second due to 50% emission coverage; At the same time, the surcharge is subject to a dynamic update mechanism, with most companies adjusting the EUA price once every quarter, while some companies adopt a monthly adjustment method to match market fluctuations.

3、 The core impact on shippers and supply chains

       The direct impact is a significant increase in transportation costs, with an additional ETS related cost of 70-110 euros per box for European routes. If DDP trade terms are used, exporters will need to fully bear this additional cost; If FOB terms are used, the buyer will have to bear the pressure of rising costs. Among them, the transportation costs of bulk commodities such as chemicals and steel have increased more significantly, and the transportation costs of bulk carriers within the European Union have increased by $103-106 per ton. In addition, the complexity of compliance and quotation has significantly increased, and the combination of EU ETS surcharges and other environmental policies such as FuelEU Maritime has led to the need to break down multiple environmental related costs in freight quotations, which can easily lead to cost disputes between shippers and shipping companies; At the same time, the EUA price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 60-150 euros/ton in 2026, and the uncertainty of carbon prices further increases the difficulty of planning logistics budgets for enterprises.

4、 Suggestions for shippers to respond

       Firstly, optimize the contract terms, clarify the sharing mechanism of ETS surcharges in trade contracts, prioritize CIF or FOB terms, and agree on a reasonable price adjustment formula to avoid using DDP terms as much as possible, in order to avoid the risk of fully bearing environmental costs. Secondly, adjust the logistics plan by merging small batch orders to improve container load utilization and dilute the additional cost per unit of goods; At the same time, priority can be given to green ships such as LNG powered vessels, or multimodal transport modes can be adopted to reduce the emission base during transportation, thereby reducing the corresponding surcharge expenses. Thirdly, do a good job in cost hedging, actively monitor the dynamics of the EUA futures market, and lock in carbon prices by signing forward contracts; Or negotiate with the shipping company to sign a long-term transportation agreement, agree on the upper limit of surcharges, and stabilize logistics costs. Fourthly, strengthen compliance collaboration, calculate the carbon footprint of cargo transportation in advance, cooperate with shipping companies to provide accurate cargo information, and avoid additional cost expenditures due to data errors.

5、 Summary of Core Trends

       The increase in surcharges this time is not a short-term market fluctuation, but a structural impact brought about by the long-term tightening of the EU ETS policy. This cost pressure will continue to spread to all links of the supply chain from 2026 to 2027. At the same time, the transparency of the surcharge charging standards of shipping companies has become an industry trend, and shippers need to actively communicate with shipping companies to obtain detailed billing details, clearly grasp the cost composition, and avoid implicit cost expenditures.